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Clowns of the Industry
Anton's favorites
lunch. It's not that most handicappers are unusually bad at picking
winners - they're just as bad as everyone else. Most can expect to
finish the season winning somewhere around 48-52% of their bets -
not enough to turn a profit for followers, and not even enough to find
a profitable strategy in "fading" the selections by playing the
opposite of the recommendations. Essentially, you are paying
subscription fees for an automatic coin-flipper. Nonetheless, many
gamblers who find themselves sinking into the hole of gambling
losses will turn to a sports service hoping for a relatively painless
bail-out.
What most gamblers don't realize is that under most sports service
plans, they are taking on all the risk of their handicapper's selections
but giving up a large piece of the potential profits. Let's imagine
you're a $110 per game bettor (to win $100 on each play). A
handicapper offering a season's worth of picks for $500 may seem
like a reasonable investment. After all, most recreational gamblers
might lose that much in a week, never mind a whole season.
The service may send out something like 100 picks during the
course of the NFL season. Let's say they put up a respectable 55%
winning percentage on the year, going 55-45. Betting each of their
selections for your normal wager amount gives you a season-long
profit of $550. Unfortunately, $500 had already gone for the
subscription to the service, meaning your profit is gone before the
season even starts, even when you've managed to navigate the
biggest hurdle in finding a "winning" 55% handicapper. And in those
(most likely) scenarios where you're stuck with a losing handicapper,
the season will be just that much more painful.
For many bettors, the "pay only if you win" policy that many touts
offer seems a safer compromise. Unfortunately, this is a great
strategy for the handicapper, and conversely a poor one for you.
The client still pays for the losing selection - in the form of his lost
bet. Again, let's look at the case of a $110 per game bettor, who is
paying a cheap (!) $10 per selection to his sports service, refunded
if the pick loses. If you receive a losing pick, you lose your $110
wager. For a winning pick, you win $100, but owe the service $10,
knocking your net profit down to $90. Risking $110 to win only $90 is
equivalent to laying odds of worse than -120 on each of your bets.
You now need the handicapper's selections to hit at 55% just to
break even. Good luck finding a service that can turn you a profit
under these conditions.
Of course, even if a tout is a competent handicapper, there are
considerations that make "send out" selections even more difficult to
actually win with:
Grading against selective lines. While picking the "right side" is
important, getting the best number is just as essential in turning a
profit in sports wagering. If the service is self-monitored, they may
choose to grade themselves against favorable lines (for instance,
from one particular sportsbook with "off-market" lines) that don't
necessarily reflect widely-available numbers to which all clients have
access. Even "independent" sports monitoring services may allow for
some flexibility in how their records are graded. If you don't have
access to the same lines that the service is being graded against,
your profit will obviously be less than the service claims as their
"official" performance.
Absence of market timing. Most services will release their plays at a
preset time, well before the start time of the games and often in the
middle of the week. They miss the chance to grab value on the
weaker early opening lines, and miss the effect of public money
which becomes much stronger right before game time. They also are
unable to use any late-breaking information, like injuries, changes in
starters, or weather, to refine their opinions. The requirement that
they release selections at set times limits the degree to which they
can handicap.
Collateral line movement. It doesn't take a genius to realize that
well-known handicappers can move the line, sometimes significantly.
Ask anyone who has subscribed to Phil Steele's preseason NFL
selections - the line would often move 2-3 points within minutes of a
selection being made public. Likewise, the college betting board
goes haywire when Dr. Bob's weekly selections are unveiled.
Depending on the speed the information reaches you and the
sportsbooks you have at your disposal, you often may not be able to
get down at the same number the service did. This can turn a
handful of "winning selections" into losers for those who got a worse
line. Don't underestimate the substantial effect this can have on
profit over the course of a season.
Of course, not all touts are bad. There are some pro handicappers
whose services can actually improve your betting bottom line, and
there are even some ways to exploit the selections of "losing" touts.
By Jay Graziani